Memorial Recap

As always (or so it seems), Jack's tournament brings out the best of a quality field. As Sunday started Ernie, Fred, and Tiger were all on the leaderboard, as well as a few "other guys" like Justin Rose and K.J. Choi. Ernie put on a putting clinic for the entire back 9 after a cold start, and only managed to pull away from a revived Couples with birdies on 17 and 18, the latter a bit improbable after a bad tee shot and bad angle to a pin tucked behind the left bunker - not to worry, Ernie put the approach to within 6 feet. The host, Mr. Nicklaus, seemed astonished at the line during the telecast, and truth be told Ernie probably did pull it about 10 feet left of target, which is why aiming at the right side is the correct play. In the end, too much Els, and 18-under was the winning score, good enough to win by 4 over Fred and by 6 over Tiger. That's the easy part - you already know that from reading just about any sports website. Now let's dig a little deeper and see what's really going on as we approach the Open at Shinnecock in 2 weeks time.

Tiger is still playing at a high level - top 20 in almost every relevant stat (4 in driving distance, T6 putts per round, T20 putts per GIR, T16 GIR, T21 in driving accuracy, T15 in sand saves). In short, he's driving it long and reasonably straight, hitting solid approach shots, putting well, and getting up and down from all over (witness the miraculous par on 14 - if that doesn't go in, he's lucky to make double). Press reports to the contrary, Tiger's game is in good shape as the Open approaches.

Ernie is playing at a very high level - 1st in putts per GIR and putts per round (100 for the week - amazing on those greens), 2nd in driving distance, T21 in driving accuracy, T39 in GIR, and 10 in sand saves). In short, he's doing all of the same things as Tiger, and at least as well. Any Masters hangover has long since gone away, replaced by an even more resilient and determined Els.

Here's the new part - Ernie's actually able to impact the way Tiger plays golf now. This is a complete change among PGA players since late 2002/early 2003. Through mid-2002, when Tiger was winning both the Masters and US Open while multiple comedies of errors erupted all around him, Tiger could hang around knowing that the field would come back to him, particularly at the bigger events and even more particularly if the competitor was inexperienced. Witness Pebble, where Matt Gogel choked like a dog to give up a 7-shot lead on the back 9 and hand Tiger the title. And big name players were no exception - witness the 2002 Augusta fiascos of Ernie (making 8 on 13 - admitting later that he should have chipped out after a horribly pulled drive) and Vijay (finding the pond twice on 15 for a 9) to hand Tiger the title. To Phil's credit, he was right through up until 16, and had his tee shot been about 2 feet to the left he could've made 17/18 very interesting for Tiger. The point remains - through 2002 Tiger had to play good, not great golf, and could count on others backing up to him much of the time.

That really changed in 2003. Mike Weir wins at Augusta and a charge from behind is made with a Sunday 64 by not Tiger, but journeyman Len Mattiace, who then falters in OT with a double to allow the other Lefty to wear green. Jim Furyk tries to run away and hide at Olympia Fields and who's there to get in his way - not Tiger, but journeyman Steven Leaney who manages to make things interesting until Furyk's laser-like tee balls and approaches, along with some outstanding putts, seal a 3-shot victory. Then it got even better - Ben Curtis, whose ranking was 396, managed to shoot the low Sunday round among those in contention. His 69 and clutch up and down on 18 enabled him to win by 1 in one of the all-time great stories - Ben was the first player to win the first major he played in as an amateur or professional (there's the asterisk - Tiger won the '97 Masters - his first as a pro - but had played in others as an amateur) since Francis Ouimet in '17 at Brookline. To top it all off, Shaun Micheel and Chad Campbell stage a duel for the ages (we all saw Chad coming - his arrival would really be announced with a Saturday 61 to run away with the Tour Championship - he followed that up with a win at Arnie's place this year and will be winning tournaments, and big wins, for many years to come) at the PGA. Trading birdies, bogeys, and great putts, it came down to the 72nd hole - as Campbell looked on from the fairway and Micheel had a 1-shot lead, Micheel pured a 7-iron to 2 inches to lock up the win. It's easy (and accurate) to point out that had Tiger hit that shot, they would've had a plaque on the spot commemorating the shot within 24 hours - hard to see if Micheel will ever get his due for it. In short, one of the best shots on the 72nd hole of a major championship to claim the championship (arguments can be made for Tway's bunker shot over Shark at Inverness in '86 or Lyle's bunker shot on 18 at Augusta, but it's a short list and Mize's miraculous chip to beat that man Norman only counts if we're counting playoffs).

The trend continues in 2004 - Phil and Ernie stage an epic duel all the way around the back 9 at Augusta, with KJ and Sergio providing plenty of additional entertainment (before all the fireworks, Sergio looked as thought he might post at -3 and entertain chances of a playoff). Phil birdies 5 of the last 7 and the birdie on 18 ended the 0-fer slump and transformed all those near misses into quality finishes with one putt. Throughout the season, Tiger's statistics have continued to improve as he works on a right-to-left ball flight with no help from Harmon required, and yet his finishes have been decidedly un-Tiger-like. Yes, he has top 5s in the last 3 tourneys, but what's worth noting is that none of them are even 2nd place finishes. In short, the standard Tiger set in 2000 is hard for anyone to reach, even Tiger in 2004, but in the meantime everyone else on tour is raising their game. The new mantra is not just "These guys are good" as the commercial says, it's "these guys are good, they don't back up, and they fear nobody." If nothing else, Ben Curtis and Shaun Micheel resoundingly convinced anyone on every tour that if they get their chance at winning any tournament, why shoudn't they think they can do it? As much as Ernie and Phil winning tournaments solidifies their ability to win more, it's the emergence of the Curtis/Micheel result from less-than-journeymen that is most telling about the direction of the tour.

It will be harder than ever to back into tournament wins, even large tournaments, going forward. All of these guys can play and all of them are ready to go low and seize opportunities. So with the history lesson and some perspective on what it means, including why majors will get increasingly harder to win over time, now let's revisit the events of Sunday. Ernie shot 34 on the front to keep his nose out on front and Tiger came to the par-5 11th trailing by 2. On a hole he had played conservatively all week, and in the past would have done so again, waiting for those around him to back up, Tiger now decided to take driver. This decision was influenced by nothing so much as the realization that Ernie was not going to come back - he had to go get him. Suddenly Tiger experienced what everyone chasing him feels, pressure to do a bit more than you should. The result - striving for eagle lead to a dead yank and a par. At that point, Tiger was done and Freddie would be the contender the rest of the back 9. Another point about the depth of the tour - 16-under through 70 holes gets you about a 2 shot lead these days on a tough track - phenomenal. Tiger can blame the driver club pull on # 3 at Augusta in 2003 on Steve Williams, but this one was his pull and was forced by Ernie. That's what Tiger's tremendous bar raise has done - forced everyone to raise their games, and they are doing so in greater numbers.

Tiger will contend in the Open - and we can expect and hope that Phil, Ernie and Vijay bring their A games and contend as well. But don't be surprised if someone comes out of nowhere to lead on Sunday and manages to close the deal. Likely candidates include Verplank, Toms (hardly unknown but questionable of late), and Padraig (also not unknown), all of whom hit it straight and long enough and have plenty of short game to navigate Shinnecock. As always, the US Open should be one of the most entertaining tournaments to watch.

Which leads me to my final point - 41% fewer viewers watched Micheel's 7-iron than watched the previous year's victory by Rich Beem. Some would say Tiger put together a 4-hole birdie run at the end to strike fear into Rich Beem - Beem says he never worried about Tiger, that he was too far back - I say Tiger should've done something a bit better with the first 14 holes. Whatever the case, the point is that 41% fewer folks chose to watch because Tiger had an early tee time on Sunday. How much that cost CBS can only be guessed, but how much they learned we'll find out soon enough. Sure enough, at Augusta, realizing that event marketing, not personality marketing, needs to emerge as the primary marketing effort for PGA events, particularly majors, CBS showed the leaders and let the Mickelson-Els drama emerge without too many Tiger cameos. It's always worth noting that the champion at Augusta has come from the last group 13 of the last 14 years (the one year it didn't Faldo was in the next-to-last group and it took him a playoff to earn the jacket). So no matter how much you want to push Tiger, the winner always comes from the last two groups.

If CBS really did learn from last year's PGA ratings, they will push last year's tremendous finish, remind us that Micheel's shot was one of the all-timers and that the guy he beat has done some tremendous things in the last year and oh, by the way, all kinds of guys will show up ready to win their first title or major so you might want to watch. Don't be surprised if one of those journeyman does get a win - and don't be surprised if people don't watch if Tiger forgets to contend. It took a few years for Tiger to get bigger than majors - it will take a few years to fix it.

But enough about CBS and the PGA - NBC has the US Open and Johnny will ensure that relevant events are covered properly - onward to Shinnecock ... and for those of you that have not read it, Johnny's new book is outstanding and must be read by anyone who is a golf fan or thinking of becoming one.

Originally posted on Blogger June 10, 2004 - moved to TypePad on July 6, 2004

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[Joanne]

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