Lies, damn lies, and (PGA Tour Golf) statistics

Johnny Miller said what?

After a long day preparing for weekend coverage, Paul Azinger and Nick Faldo are at the 19th hole waiting to order dinner and drinks.

Faldo: So, Paul, what looks good tonight?

Azinger: One more week on the road and you might – but for dinner, I’m going with the New York strip medium with a salad to keep my girlish figure.

Faldo: Easy, big fella, it’ll take at least 3 more weeks before you look close to good, but good call on the New York – I’ll get mine medium rare.  How about a beverage – just one tonight, honest.  It’s just so hard to talk to you Americans without a few cocktails – so uptight …

Azinger: Ah, back off, if you’d talked half as much, or been half as funny during your playing career, maybe more of us would have liked you.

Faldo: Yeah, like I cared – let’s see, that’s 6 majors for me, 1 for you – and, oh, there’s 1-major winner Mark Calcavecchia beating me up for not being so funny when I played.  At the end of the day, boys, it’s scoreboard for majors won and then I get to be as funny as I want when I’m in the booth.  Not much to say to Calc back then, even less now.  And you see what I mean about you wags being uptight?  Waitress, cocktail?

Waitress: What can I get you?

Faldo: Anything on tap – or a Guiness at room temperature – and a Shirley temple for my friend here.

Azinger: Yeah, thanks, I can order for myself – I’ll take a Coors light, drink of choice for conservative PGA Tour members everywhere.  That’s not uptight, that’s funny, and you know it.

Faldo: Ooh, you got me there – that’s funny alright.  And speaking of funny, could you believe Johnny on the Sunday Doral telecast with the “2000” thing on his forehead while waxing poetic about the beauty of the Tiger full swing?  Good God, looked like the first step in a dreaded 12-step program – “I think Tiger’s a God and nobody will ever beat him” – admitting the problem is the first step.  10 days and a couple of follow-ups later …”  If you ever see me doing anything that crazy

Azinger: Don’t worry, I’ll throw you right under the bus – you’re too smart to get caught dead with that “2000” sticker on your forehead.  The hilarious part is as Miller’s doing that Tiger’s coming down the stretch in a dogfight with Lefty – I still don’t know how that chip on 18 stayed out, should’ve been a playoff.  Yeah, just like Tiger in 2000 – 15 stroke blowout at Pebble, wins by 8 at the British, and this one shot victory over Phil at Doral is supposed to remind us of 2000? 

Faldo: Maybe Johnny’s fantasizing about 2000 TV ratings – through the roof, and not likely to happen again soon.  The rest of the boys have caught up – they got kicked in the head for a couple of years watching Tiger play at an unbelievable level, especially in big events – and they’ve made adjustments and raised their game.  Fans watched in 2000 to watch history – they’re not nearly as interested in competitive back 9s on Sunday.

Azinger: Maybe Johnny can’t find the pgatour.com website for some basic info.  In 2000 Tiger set the bar with a 67.79 scoring average – Phil was second at 69.25.  That’s a 1.46 shot gap – that is frightening.  Craig Parry was another 1.46 back – and in 40th place. 

Faldo: You got that off the top off your head, Zinger?  Waitress, make my friend’s a double.

Azinger: No, looked it up, but it’s so easy to get.  Johnny’s whole research team must have been asleep at the wheel on Sunday.  Compare that with 2005 – Tiger and Phil separated by .01 shots for the top 2 spots, Ernie is only another .27 behind them, and everyone’s a full stroke above Tiger’s 2000 scoring average.

Faldo: OK, now you’re scaring me – nobody just knows that stuff.  What’s that – ah ha! what do you have there, that’s one of those little email thingys – I knew it, nobody can have that much useless information in their head.

Azinger: Try me.  Yeah, it’s a Blackberry – so what – great way to check up on all my stats, and my email.

Faldo: Well, aren’t you just the little gadget boy?  Does it brush your teeth for you in the morning?

Azinger:  That costs extra – see, again, funny, not uptight.

Faldo: Right again you are – forget the scoring average and all your amazing details, it all comes down to one number – the world ranking.  In 2000 Tiger was at 29 plus, Ernie was second at 11 plus.  That kind of stuff only happens when you’re doing crazy stuff like winning 3 majors by a bunch of strokes and winning about 1 out of 4 starts.  By comparison, currently Tiger, Vijay, and Ernie are all within a point of each other and the #1 spot could change hands multiple times this year. 

Azinger: OK, let’s both forget the numbers and think about the quality of play.  In 2000 at the British Open Tiger did not find a bunker all week and in caddy Steve Williams’ words “didn’t miss a shot all week” and managed to avoid trouble areas on every hole for 4 straight days.  Unheard of – most people couldn’t walk the course without falling into a bunker somewhere along the way.  And at Pebble he hit everything beautifully for 4 days – left Ernie laughing after he hit wedge from the thick stuff to 3 feet on 15 Sunday.  Not to mention he made about every putt he looked at all year.

Faldo: Meanwhile in 2005 he’s hit some woeful shots under pressure.  Look at Torrey Pines – leading by 1 over Lehman he blades his 2-iron on 18 and barely keeps it dry 30 yards short of target. 

Azinger: His sponsors must have tightened their sphincter’s a bit when you fired off your “what was that” comment?

Faldo: Maybe, I just call them like I see them.  That was a poor shot under a lot of pressure at a non-major – wait until it’s magnified at Augusta and the other majors.  That shot on 18 looked like he hit it with the passenger door of a Buick instead of driving home in one.  That wasn’t the only example – on 17 in the match play loss to Nick O’Hern, Nick was 2 up and hit a great shot from the thick stuff under some trees to put Tiger under pressure.  He responded by flaring his approach into the right front trap.

Azinger: Even at Doral, the “2000” tournament as we’ll call it, Tiger hit a big high right flare on 18 on Sunday and blew his putt past for a 6-foot comebacker.  Imagine if Phil’s chip goes in, Tiger has to make that putt to force a playoff.

Faldo: The interesting thing about the Match Play loss was that O’Hern was able to put Tiger under pressure – that almost never happened in 2000.  And some non-pressure shots are lower quality than expected – Tiger’s opening 3 wood at Bay Hill went 198 yards.  I’ve seen 6 irons go farther – when hit by Kirk Triplett.  Now that’s funny – or humor, as you Yanks like to call it.

Azinger: Whatever.  No question about it, though, Johnny blew that call.  This year’s going to look nothing like 2000 – but it’ll be a great year for golf coverage.  I wonder if Johnny was trying pump up sales of his new book?

Faldo: Let’s not give him too much credit.  Besides, in the book he talks about how Tiger’s best years were behind him and how hard he would have to work just to stay even with the rest of the guys.  So the book supports our position – Tiger can still win but it will take a big effort these days.  The days of double-digit blowouts are gone.

Azinger: Maybe Johnny’s feeling the pressure of the new kids on the block?

Faldo: What’s that – oh, you mean us?  Hmm – maybe.  I just think Johnny and a lot of the part-time golf viewers don’t realize how hard is it to keep it at the level Tiger had it in 2000 for any extended period of time.  So they figure they can get away with putting up silly stuff like the “2000” sign – who’s going to know it’s not gonna be like that and it can help bump ratings.

Azinger: Ideally the fans would figure it out – maybe not.  Of course I should probably stop talking about how great Tiger’s swing looks when he’s hitting it to either side with no real sure side to play for the misses.  That’s definitely not 2000 all over again.

Faldo: Good call Paul.  Maybe we should have a World Announcer Ranking – some funny numerical analysis of wit, knowledge, playing ability, predictive capabilities as related to shot outcomes, and a cumulative 2-year scoring cycle.  You could build it all into a big spreadsheet and get wildly popular.

Azinger: Very funny.  Who’s going to do the scoring?

Faldo:  Well we can for a start.

Azinger: That won’t look too suspicious when we keep winning every week.

Faldo: Hmm, you’ve got a point.  Of course nobody minded when IMG started the golf world ranking and their boy Greg kept turning up at the top.

Azinger: We minded but at least Greg's a relatively charismatic good looking champio with a personality.  Unlike some other #1s

Faldo: Stop it - you be nice to Bernhard Langer - or we'll let him captain another Ryder Cup.

Azinger: Of course there is a plus if we do the scoring.

Faldo: What’s that?

Azinger: It’s the only way you’ll be #1 anytime soon.

Faldo: Why, I ought to …!

Azinger: Now who’s uptight?

Sports Commissioners Luncheon – transcript

This intrepid reporter was at the 5th annual sports commissioners luncheon in Vegas last week and caught the following conversation:

Selig: “That Finchem is the luckiest guy I know.  Third time he’s had a contract year come up for TV, and look what he’s got – Tiger’s Masters landslide in ’97, the Tiger slam in ’00, now Tiger’s got 2 early wins in ’05. The guy is killing me.”

Stern: “Lighten up Bud – try being me.  Kobe breaks up the Lakers, sends Shaq to the Heat and they’ll get through to the finals.  Miami – you ever been to Miami? – it’s hot in June – I better take some sunscreen for the finals.  And mom’s going to want tickets to see the big fella – anyone got a cell phone, I left mine in the car.”

Bettman: “Stop whining David – at least you’ve got a finals to worry about.  Who knew the idiot player’s union would call my bluff and blow off the entire season.  Now I’ve got no product and nobody cares except stadium employees and hockey enthusiasts – what happened to the diehard fans?”

Tagliabue: “All 3 of them live in Quebec and think the Colorado Avalanche happened in ’95 and ruined the downhill ski season.  Enough about your problems – I’ve got an NFL team on a run of dynasty proportions and they couldn’t be more boring.  Philly was that close to making things really entertaining – TO and Westbrook as Super Bowl champions, that’s what I needed.  Instead I’ve got Belichick and Brady – sure Brady’s nice eye candy for the ladies, but he hasn’t said anything controversial since he lost the pinebox derby to his neighbor and accused him of having his dad build the car for him.”

Bettman: “Oh, right, like everyone didn’t get their dad to help them with pinebox derby.  I was 8 – the instructions might has well have been a scrabble board.  I gave the whole thing to my dad and said “make me proud” then went out to play.  Enough about your childhood inadequacies, I agree with Bud – Finchem is the luckiest guy alive.  Imagine if he’d had to negotiate with the networks in ’04 – mildly entertaining majors but Tiger wasn’t a factor at all and his only win was the Match Play.”

Selig: “’04 mildly entertaining??  Put down whatever you’re smoking Gary – Phil birdies 18 to nip Ernie, Retief 1-putts 11 times to nip Phil at the US, Ernie beaten by Todd Hamilton in a playoff at the British, and Vijay’s OT win at the PGA.  Try 2003 – Mike Weir – hey, Bettman maybe he could play right wing for the Red Wings – oh, that’s right you’re not playing hockey this year.”

Bettman: “Don’t make me come over there!”

Selig: “As I was saying, Mike Weir at Augusta, Jim Furyk wins the Open in a yawner over Steven Leaney (just sounds like a lawn mower repair guy), Ben Curtis at the British, and Shaun Micheel at the PGA.  Ben was worse than an unknown – we had to track down his family on Saturday to let them know he was playing.  Anyone seen Micheel since ’03?  Imagine trying to do TV contracts that year.”

Stern: “I could’ve made 2003 work – Weir in OT, Ben Curtis the Cinderella story out of nowhere to beat Bjorn (the tragedy of the bunker), Vijay and Tiger, and Micheel hitting one of the best shots on the 72nd hole of a major ever to win the event.  Work with a slogan like “These guys are good!” and get the fans to come out to watch the events, not just the personalities.

Tagliabue: “Helloooooo David – that is their slogan.  But fans don’t care – they want to see Tiger, not great shot-making.  Kinda like New England – they don’t want to see quality play, the fans want to see someone controversial say something really stupid – the Eagles were going to be perfect.  Nike spots with TO and Nicole Sheridan – now that’s must-see TV!”

Stern: “It’s Nicolette – and stop griping about fans not caring.  I wish I could get them to stop caring what Ron Artest is doing.  His new album sucks, and the Pacers will be lucky to be an 8 seed, but the media won’t let it go.  And try working with San Antonio – Popovich, Duncan, and Parker could be a great Chicago law firm – instead they’re going to be making the finals every other year for the foreseeable future.  Duncan makes Kareem look like a chatterbox and never issues any bulletin board fodder we can use in pre-game coverage.”

Selig: “Yeah, well at least Duncan’s not on the juice.  I’m terrified to think about what’s going to happen to Barry next time the Giants are in Shea for a 3-game set.  He’s going to break the career home run record in the next 2 years and nobody’s going to care.  Hey, maybe we should start a rumor that Tiger and Vijay are both on the juice to give Finchem some tough issues to manage?”

Bettman: “Yeah, good call – give Finchem and his tour even more free publicity – like he needs it.  He’s going to open a can of whup-ass next time Tirico tries to interview him during an ABC broadcast.  Then he’s going to hold all the networks hostage and say “You want Tiger – I got him – and Phil and Vijay and Ernie too – most of the time, when he’s not playing overseas – who cares, I got Tiger!”

Votaw: “Not just Tiger – he’s got Annika and Michelle.  Annika gets the PGA Tour more run for playing at Colonial and beating 10 guys than she gets for the near career slam she’s had multiple times on the LPGA.  Michelle’s already on her way to stardom and people care more about the Sony MC performances than her Top 10s in LPGA majors at 14.  It’s so unfair – we’ve got great product, we’ve got great performers, we’ve got …”

Agassi: “At least you’ve got a commissioner – try being men’s tennis – Roger Federer puts together one of the all-time years last year with 3 majors and we can’t rally any marketing because of the alphabet soup running the tour – ATP, ITF, IMTA – I haven’t seen this many acronyms since I grew up watching boxing in Vegas.”

Votaw: “Andre, what are you doing here?  This is for commissioners only.”

Agassi: “I know – I said a commissioner was a good idea for men’s tennis and since nobody stepped up they emailed me the invitation last week.  I’m good with it though – 2 sick kids not sleeping through the night made a hall pass seem like a good idea.  Hey, can I have another beer?  Plus, Steffi says if I keep losing to guys named Jurgen Melzer that commissioner job’s not a bad option.  Thought I’d check it out.” 

Stern: “Andre”

Agassi: “Yeah, Dave”

Stern: “Stop cutting my meat.”

Agassi: “Sorry, habit – and wipe your face.  Man, what is this sauce on this fish – that is tasty.”

Selig: “I’ll take a stab – the cream and the clear?  Everyone’s a comedian.  Geez”

Agassi: “Bud”

Selig: “Yeah, Andre.”

Agassi: “I was actually asking what the sauce was – not setting up a punch line.”

Selig: “Sorry, little defensive these days.”

Finchem: “Boys, sorry I’m late – what’s the topic?”

Stern: “How you’re the luckiest guy at the table – ’97, 2000, and 2005 will be the 3 best years to negotiate contracts with the networks.  Gary’s shut down his hockey league so sponsors will be looking to move dollars elsewhere.  Footballs got the most boring dynasty ever in the Patriots.  I’ve got the Pistons-Pacers brawl and Kobe’s never-ending personal saga getting headlines.  Bud’s got Jose’s new book and steroids.  And you’ve got the top 4 guys playing great as the heart of the season approaches – Tiger, Ernie, Phil, and Vijay have all won and the Players and Augusta are 2 weeks away.  Man, you are one lucky guy.”

Finchem: “When you’re right, you’re right!  Round of drinks on me everyone – and speaking of steroids, what is that great looking clear sauce on this salmon Bud?”

Selig: “Check please.  I’m outta here.”

Mickelson the favorite as the Players and Augusta approach

Golf begins in Florida this week, which means the Players and Augusta are not far behind.  The media continues hyping the big 3/4/5 depending on who won last week and who’s playing this week, but at this point most of the hype should be aimed Phil Mickelson’s way for a few reasons:

1)    The ability to go low sets up runaway victories

After getting that pesky major monkey off his back last year, Phil’s out of the chute fast in 2005.  Runaway victories at Scottsdale and Pebble were punctuated by course records at TPC Scottsdale (60) and Spyglass (62 – so impressive it left other top pros asking “he shot that where?”)  The next lowest round at Scottsdale was a 65 and the next lowest at Pebble was a 66 – this effectively gives Phil a 5-shot and 4-shot cushion for the remaining 3-day tournament. 

2)    Birdies in bunches

Phil leads the pack this year by making birdies on 43% of his GIR.  He’s also one of four players averaging over 5.5 birdies/round this year (Tiger, Ernie, and bonus points for those of you that correctly guessed Tim Clark.)  That kind of birdie production allows Phil to play aggressively, knowing that he can bounce back quickly from a bogey.  It’s no surprise that his 68.96 scoring average leads the tour.

3)    Short game mastery

Phil fires at so many pins and makes so many birdies in large part because he knows that if he misses a green, he’s still got a very good chance of making par.  At the same time, his misses for the most part are in positions that make par more likely than double bogey.  This is probably the biggest difference between Phil in ’03 and now – his leaves are in much better spots.  He’s always made birdies, now he makes a lot fewer bogeys and backs up much less often.  Whatever he’s paying Dave Pelz to help him with short game risk-reward analysis, it’s not enough. 

4)    He’s a great dad

It may seem funny to see this on a list of why Phil’s the favorite for winning tournaments, but is anyone more comfortable with his family-golf balance than Phil?  He enjoys his family being part of his tour experience, and he is able to play his best when they’re around.  Equally important, he doesn’t let his self-worth get dictated by the outcome of a golf tournament because he knows his family does not care about Sunday’s outcome. 

5)    The “X” factor

The comments at the FBR and Pebble from competitors chasing him were interesting.  Five years ago if you were chasing Phil on Sunday, the odds were fairly good that he could back up or be chased down.  The rest of the tour is starting to realize that either of those outcomes is much less likely to happen now.  Phil’s hitting it as long as anyone, his misses are in good spots, he hits his approach shots as close as anyone, and his short game is the best on tour.  In short, players have to play their best to beat him, and that creates pressure that works to his advantage.

6)    Tiger 2000 and 2002

Phil had to watch Tiger take his game to historic levels in 2000 while he was trying to figure out how to throttle back distance and aggressiveness.  Then he had to watch Tiger beat him at Augusta and Bethpage in 2002 without his A game on Sunday as Phil made late bogeys.  As painful as they were, those experiences forced Phil to re-examine his on-course strategy from tee to green and the resulting change and work with Pelz have made him a force.  Still in his mid 30s, Phil watched the best at his best, then learned from it and rebuilt his game to get in contention and handle Sunday pressure at big events.  He could be on his way to a historic year of his own in 2005.